So the buyer really should be asking himself not what is the expected return for the first purchaser but what is the expected return for his purchase. Theoretically there might be a certain chance and I don't know if its Combinations or Permutations or Factorials or Fractions, but once the real prizes are sold the rest of the pull tabs are junk. Perhaps you might discuss the question of does the buyer know whether the major prizes have already been awarded? A small batch of tickets is printed, but the very first one sold could be the grand prize winner so that all subsequent sales would be akin to a poker player who was 'drawing dead', that is expectantly looking at additional cards but unknowingly there were no outs available to him. >please feel free to ask questions and make comments, suggestions, or corrections. One cruise line official was recently found to be tipping off a crew of burglars who always hit the home on the first night. Good thinking, but don't ever forget that the cruise line probably already knows that. >but I don't like to broadcast to the whole world that my house is empty.